Industry News
People's Daily, the first time on the 25th evening announced the "Thirteen Five" plan ten mission objectives: 1. to maintain economic growth, the transformation of economic development mode 2 and 3 to adjust and optimize the industrial structure, promote innovation-driven development 4, 5... speed up the pace of agricultural modernization, 6. institutional reform, 7. promote coordinated development, 8. strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, 9. protect and improve people's livelihood, 10. promoting poverty alleviation and development. Among them, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization is the first five-year plan to write.
As we all know, the arrival of the eighth session of the Fifth Plenary Session today for building a moderately prosperous society layout, while the main line of this layout is the "Thirteen Five" plan.
People's Daily, the first time on the 25th evening announced the "Thirteen Five" plan ten mission objectives: 1. to maintain economic growth, the transformation of economic development mode 2 and 3 to adjust and optimize the industrial structure, promote innovation-driven development 4, 5... speed up the pace of agricultural modernization, 6. institutional reform, 7. promote coordinated development, 8. strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, 9. protect and improve people's livelihood, 10. promoting poverty alleviation and development. Among them, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization is the first five-year plan to write.
Faced with the upcoming unveiling of "Thirteen Five" plan "the stock market roadmap" outlook investors exactly how to grasp the main investment, Tazhun rhythm of the market? The breakdown of current investment magazine "Thirteen Five" hot spots several major investment theme for investors direction.
"Double down" is expected to help "Thirteen Five" hot spot temperature
The central bank last Friday "double down" is no doubt the market is gradually warming into the warmth. The market generally believes that the only "double down", but also on additional "three rural" and other institutions RRR 0.5 percentage points, exceeding market expectations.
Guotai Junan Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping opinion, "double down" aimed at steady growth and controlled deflation. GDP growth in the third quarter to break the "7", steady growth pressures. "The decision to this point in time to double down, probably because of the time window in December before the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, the ECB is expected to expand QE, and the forthcoming arrival of the 26th Fifth Plenary Session in."
The RRR will continue to improve market liquidity. "The central bank has been carried out on the 21st MLF operations 105.5 billion yuan, the foreign exchange market expectations stabilized, foreign exchange decline narrowed, superimposed RRR, relatively abundant liquidity." Ren Zeping analysts pointed out that while "double down" in favor of the fourth quarter the economy stabilize and the housing market recovery, in the micro-stimulus, the joint action "double down", the bulk of bounce, expected in the fourth quarter, the economy will hold steady or decline narrowed.
"Double down" the stock market will also be good, help enhance risk appetite, lower risk-free rate. As a recent A-share bull unequivocally firm, Ren Zeping still believes that the current market is still dominated by structural market growth stocks at the stock game. "The stock market going up breakthrough platform, phoenix from the ashes."
Obviously, in addition to the good news last week at the policy level, the week or even the fourth quarter or even the next few years to dominate the market focus will be officially opened a major opportunity, "the veil."
According to the arrangement, the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee eighteenth fifth plenary session of the 26th to the 29th was held in Beijing. By then, the "CPC Central Committee on National Economic and Social Development Five-Year Plan" proposed draft will be submitted to the eighteenth session of the Fifth Plenary Session.
As the "Thirteen Five" plan is the first new five-year plan prepared by the central leadership, its natural self-evident that the degree of attention. At the same time, the current economic development in China is in an important period of "steady growth structural adjustment" of economic development has entered a "new normal", the urgency of reform can not be ignored. In this context, "Thirteen Five" plan in responsibilities is very important, any one issue, both for the national economy will play a decisive role. From the capital market perspective, "Thirteen Five" Planning for the future will also become the basis for long-term investment decisions, impact of will last longer, and have a profound impact on various industries.
Analysis of "Thirteen Five" hot spots will long continue
So, the associated investment themes, what does? Analysts pointed out that, due to "Thirteen Five" plan covers a wide range, such as "Industry 4.0" and with the "Internet +" and other traditional industries and innovation-driven, and regional coordinated development regional planning related to the FTA, Northeast China, Beijing, Tianjin, the Yangtze River economic belt, adjust the industrial structure development of services, the construction of ecological civilization, as well as state-owned enterprise reform, price reform, to benefit the "two-child" population policy change concept, Going grand strategy benefited high-end equipment manufacturing is expected to contain.
Analysts said that from the past "five-year plan" of the preparation experience, planning major policy document published early in the plan will also focus on "ink." In "Twelfth Five Year Plan", for example, in September 2010, the State Council approved in principle the "Decision of the State Council on accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries", after October's "Twelfth Five-Year" plan, strategic emerging industries It deserved to become one of the core industries planning. And this year, "Made in China 2025" and "the State Council on actively promoting the" Internet + "guidance action" has released the first two programmatic documents, and are established as the country's strategic direction in the future. The market is expected to "Thirteen Five" plan, which will also focus on two areas mentioned.
And on the 25th evening, the People's Daily published "Thirteen Five" plan targets 10 tasks, but also for the market to provide some analysis of ideas. Among them, strengthen the construction of ecological civilization is the first five-year plan to write.
Past experience guide for the future. "Twelve Five" as well as more than two months is about to wrap up. Digging "Thirteen Five" before the hot, go back and look at the stock market over the past five years, the road map for investors will be more help.
Statistics show that 15 October 2010 set the tone of "Twelfth Five Year Plan" has been specified in the general direction for the next five years: expanding domestic demand, restructuring, accelerate urbanization and promote regional development. Projected onto the capital market, industrial upgrading and new industries of concern, particularly industry which involves covering the high-speed rail construction, marine engineering, aerospace and military industry in line with the direction of industrial development of new industries, as well as the expected integration of the energy industry and "clothing, food, shelter, "and other livelihood industries.
During this period, the main stock index, although the cumulative increase of only 20%, but it has gone through the 2011, 2012, 2013 bear market, and then in 2014, 2015 out of the big bull market. According to 21st Century Economic Report to statistics, from January 1, 2011 to October 19, 2015 to SW an industry index, calculated range of Price, media, computer, communications, medicine, biology, light manufacturing, respectively Habitat or table top five, rising rates were 284.2%, 278.81%, 149.77%, 134%, 122.1%.
The sector also led during the concept proves the industry sector rose list, the top five were China-made software, gene sequencing, network security, big data, and intelligent health, and this is the hottest in the capital markets in recent years, Theme of. In this regard, analysts pointed out that the theme of this phased handover, obviously able to see the trend of China's economic restructuring, the future market focus will also be the impact of the new five-year plan.
We propose a focus on innovation and other hot spots of ecological civilization
Recent research Nanfang Daily reporter CITIC Securities (600030), CICC, Societe Generale Securities (601377), Haitong Securities (600837), Guoxin Securities (002,736) and other agencies after the study found that the major mechanism for "Thirteen Five" investment The study focused on five main areas of reform and innovation, information economy, regional and urban development, ecological civilization, population policy and other services. Meanwhile, infrastructure, industrial upgrading, producer services and oil and gas and other topics of concern.
"Upstream policy reform and innovation will continue, efforts will increase, state enterprise reform, financial reform, tax reform are worthy of attention." CITIC Securities believes that the reform and innovation of the market-dominant theme of this year will continue to be a popular investment theme. However, the gold company said that although reform can significantly increase economic growth, will be an important driver of economic growth during the "Thirteen Five", but the risks can not be ignored point. "China's reform has already had a trial and error stage, is now in a crucial phase and deep water, are left quite difficult to hoe, vested interests have become the biggest obstacle and risk." CICC, said reform as less than expected, the level of growth, "Thirteen Five" period would have come down, the progress of structural adjustment will also be difficult to reach expectations.
At the same time, the Internet as the core of the information economy is becoming the fastest growing segment of China's economy, information technology and other industries in-depth integration, the release of a huge room for growth, so that the information economy is still a hot topic. In this regard, Guoxin Securities has a similar view, which is particularly pointed out important role played by producer services. It believes that the "Internet +" action covered more efficient producer services, logistics, e-commerce, convenient transportation, Pratt & Whitney and financial help to the great development of producer services. Therefore, we recommend investors to focus on high consumer services sub-sectors of the economy and policy catalytic more productive service industry, such as film and television media, outbound tourism, express logistics, rural electricity providers.
In addition, China's regional economic development and urban agglomeration process is far from the level of developed countries, the potential of domestic demand is a new breakthrough in the new normal economic development, thus CITIC Securities believes that regional and urban development group should be "Thirteen Five "investment theme of the question of the proper meaning. In this regard, the gold company also holds a similar view. Its research report shows that investment in infrastructure will increase throughout the "Thirteen Five" period, the construction of the new town will become a new driving force for economic growth. CICC believes that urbanization will bring major investment opportunities in the transport network infrastructure construction, education, health care and other public services, energy, water and other resources, construction and communications facilities and other entertainment services in four areas.
It is worth noting that, with the environmental constraints increase, enhance international standards and domestic public increase awareness of environmental requirements, CITIC Securities believes that is expected to "Thirteen Five" to further enhance the importance of ecological civilization, ecological civilization the main line can not be ignored. At the same time, as China currently is in the process of disappearance of the demographic dividend, the importance of population and related development policies to enhance the recent so-called "two-child concept stocks" is the best proof, so CITIC Securities believes that population policies and Services will play an important role in "Thirteen Five" investment mainline. Guoxin Securities further pointed out that structural changes due to population income and birth of a new consumption patterns, tourism, film and other consumer services as the representative of high boom can be expected.
"Innovation-driven, modern service industry, the construction of ecological civilization is likely to become an important theme of the next five years." Societe Generale Securities research report pointed out that in the short term, according to a study on the market rhythm, excess returns behind industry policy You may have a stronger performance when the cash. In addition, Guoxin Securities stressed that the next 5--10 years, China will help the upgrading of traditional industries, "Thirteen Five-Year Plan" is expected to be further refined for the next five-year plan of industrialization upgrade, we recommend investors to focus on new energy vehicles and intelligent network linking cars, high-end CNC machine tools, farm machinery and equipment, high-performance medical equipment and other industries.
Haitong Securities is another way, that the oil and gas industry reform is an investment theme can not be ignored. It said the oil and chemical industry focus on the development direction of China's petrochemical industry will be optimized, new energy, new chemical materials, chemical traditional chemical upgrades in four directions, by breaking the monopoly, the introduction of private capital and other forms of reform, the petrochemical industry to enhance the overall business efficiency and vitality, thus promoting the realization of the petrochemical industry, "Thirteen Five" planning objectives.
